por Manisha Thakor
Imagínese esto. Dos coches circulan por una autopista de tres carriles. Un deportivo rojo circula a toda velocidad entre los tres carriles, intentando encontrar la manera más rápida de adelantarse. Un sedán gris circula por el carril derecho, superando constantemente el límite de velocidad. De repente, suena la bocina de un tren y, a lo lejos, el paso de peatones se cierra. A pesar de todos los esfuerzos del conductor del coche rojo, no alcanza la estrecha ventana y se detiene bruscamente en el cruce, justo al lado del sedán gris.
Si esto fuera inversión, el deportivo rojo se llamaría inversión activa. El sedán gris sería un estilo llamado inversión pasiva (o "basada en la evidencia"). ¿Por qué debería importarte? Porque... Los datos muestran que, por aburrido que pueda ser, un estilo pasivo de inversión históricamente ha superado al estilo activo más atractivo.Como asesora financiera, me preguntan con frecuencia sobre las ventajas y desventajas de cada estilo. Aquí tienes algunas ideas para ayudarte a decidir cuál es el adecuado para ti.
¿Qué hacen los inversores activos?
Active investors believe that markets are “inefficient”. They believe that, at any point in time, there are always some securities that are mis-priced, enabling them to buy (or sell) them at a profit. Professional active investors devote an unbelievable amount of time and resources towards trying to find that extra edge. They will then trade in and out of those securities to try and generate profits. They pour over company financials, visit with competitors, study all the latest economic releases, and try to predict everything from corporate earnings to the direction of interest rates. You can think of this as the extra wear and tear (and stress!) that comes from being the driver of the red sports car, weaving in and out of traffic and having lots of sudden stops and starts.
¿Qué hacen los inversores pasivos?
Passive investors believe that markets are “efficient.” They believe that, over the long run, the price of stocks and bonds reflect the true underlying value of those securities. As such, they do not seek to beat the market, but rather to “be” the market. They do this by using index funds and ETF (exchange traded funds) that mimic various components of the market. For example, rather than try to find that “next Apple or Google,” you can purchase (nearly) all large US stocks or (nearly) all small emerging market stocks in one fell swoop. Then, using a process called asignación de activos (picking the right mix of each of those slices), they can create a portfolio that has an appropriate risk exposure for the client. You can think of it as the gray car driving at different speeds depending upon what the speed limit is on any particular road.
¿Qué estilo de inversión funciona mejor?
Survey says…. Passive investors outperform active investors more often than not. In the past 5 years, 75% of US Large Cap funds, 90% of US Mid Cap funds and 83% of Small Cap funds failed to beat their comparable indices. One reason for this may be the fact market surges (up or down) are stubbornly unpredictable. Y como muestra esta diapositiva basada en datos de Dimensional Fund Advisors, incluso si se perdiera solo los 25 mejores días de desempeño del mercado durante los últimos 40 años, el resultado sería que tendría 3,61 TP3T menos por año que si hubiera mantenido el rumbo.
¿Qué estilo deberías utilizar?
Looking at investors as a whole, active remains by far the more popular style. As of December 2011, 79% of mutual fund dollars were allocated to active, and 21% to passive. Which style of investing you want to use depends upon both whether or not you think markets are efficient, and your risk tolerance. Do you want to invest like the driver of the red car and have the possibility that you might beat the train to the crossing (or might have a horrific accident along the way)? Or do you want to invest like driver of the gray sedan, having a less exciting ride but higher odds that you get where you want to go on time (but likely not early)? Only you can answer the question. For more on active versus passive investing, I recommend reading La respuesta de la inversión por Dan Goldie y Gordon Murray.
[Want more financial love? You can follow Women’s Financial Literacy Initiative founder, Manisha Thakor, on Twitter at @ManishaThakor o en Facebook en /MThakor.
LEER: Cómo pensar en la selección de acciones individuales por Stacy Francis, CFP®, CDFA
